The hottest May property market deregulation press

The "red may" property market deregulation pressure increased

the "red may" property market deregulation pressure increased

may 28, 2019

may 2019, the national housing market transactions were generally flat, and the traditional "red may" market did not appear. Even during the May Day golden week, more people still choose to visit relatives and friends, travel, etc., rather than look at houses and buy houses. According to the analysis of the industry, the short "little spring" in the real estate market since March 2019 has not continued. In May, the overall sales market was depressed. The actual number of visits to most urban project sites was unsatisfactory, and the trading volume fell sharply

the hot selling market of "red may" is no longer

recently, a visit to the area around Beijing in Hebei found that since the beginning of 2019, the sales price of the "three northern counties" property market has increased, and the number of people coming to see the house has increased significantly. However, as of May, affected by the strict purchase restriction policy, the sales volume was basically dormant, and the de stocking pressure of real estate was prominent

"it has been almost two years since so many people came to see the house." A real estate consultant at the Sales Office of Seoul sweet city in Yanjiao said. Two years ago, Langfang and other cities around Beijing introduced purchase restriction policies, local house prices quickly "halved", and the trading volume also fell into freezing point

since the fourth quarter of 2018, the "three northern counties" have been enjoying continuous benefits. In particular, the direct benefit of the subway line, the sales price of apartments along the line increased by 2000 yuan compared with the end of 2018. However, the property market has not got rid of the embarrassing situation of having a price without a market. The above real estate consultants said, "since 2019, although the number of visitors has increased, the trading volume is still at a low ebb, and many intermediary companies have closed down."

it is not just around Beijing. According to the statistics of Kerui Research Center, the real estate market in all cities has been generally depressed since May. Taking the May Day Golden Week transaction data as an example, the 40 key cities monitored had a total transaction volume of 1.61 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 55%. The trading volume of all tier cities fell, with the first year-on-year decline of -68% in the second tier cities

specifically, the trading volume of the four first tier cities decreased by 27% year-on-year. Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou all fell back to varying degrees. Beijing was as low as 12000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 75%. The Shenzhen market recovered, with a year-on-year increase in trading volume of 41%. The trading volume of 11 second tier cities fell to a historical low, down 68% year-on-year. Hefei, Changsha, Qingdao and other markets turned cold significantly, with a year-on-year decline of more than -70% in trading volume, and more than -80% in Nanjing and Chengdu

25 third - and fourth tier cities saw a 43% year-on-year decline in trading volume, and the markets of each city were significantly differentiated. Among them, the market heat of Huizhou, Wenzhou and Huzhou was significantly lower than that of the same period last year, and the trading volume was halved year-on-year. During the May Day holiday, Yangzhou and Shaoguan real estate markets were unusually cold, with trading volume of less than 10000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of more than -90%

the pressure on the property market has generally increased.

according to the statistics of Centaline real estate research center, up to now, the inventory of Beijing's property market has reached 71300 sets, a new high in the past eight years. In fact, the inventory of Beijing real estate market has increased by nearly 20000 units in the past year, up by 42%, especially in the second half of 2018

"in the past three years, Beijing has sold a total of 95 commercial housing residential plots (92 limited to competitive housing), and the total planned commercial housing construction area has reached 8.51 million square meters." Zhangdawei, chief analyst of Centaline real estate, said, "according to the normal investment logic, the total investment scale of these more than 90 projects is about 500billion by adding the construction and installation taxes and other investments. However, up to now, the sales scale is only 50billion."

"on the one hand, the scale of land supply in the Beijing market over the past two years has gradually begun to be reflected in the number of residential houses, and it is expected that a large number of houses will be listed in the future. On the other hand, the phenomenon of supply clustering is obvious, and buyers are still on the sidelines, which makes the situation of supply exceeding demand worse." Zhang Dawei said

the "three northern counties" in Hebei, which are closest to Beijing, are also facing the pressure of de urbanization. Since march2019, Langfang municipal government has launched the special action that the company is preparing to raise this threshold again to rectify the illegal sales of the city's real estate agencies, and strictly investigated 12 illegal sales behaviors such as avoiding the purchase restriction policy

insiders pointed out that this almost "blocked" the housing groups who tried to pay the housing fund first and then supplement the social security, and the pressure on developers and intermediary sales increased further. According to the data of Langfang Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development, new materials will also meet the growing demand for complex materials in the shipbuilding industry in 2016. In 2017 and 2018, the transaction area of newly-built commercial housing in Langfang fell from 17.61 million square meters to 7.46 million square meters and 3.81 million square meters, of which the transaction area of residential housing fell from 16.03 million square meters to 6.38 million square meters and 2.77 million square meters, showing a steep fall. Dachang Hui Autonomous County faces Tongzhou District across the river. Through strict purchase restriction and other policies, 344 new commercial houses were sold in 2018, with an area of 39000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 95%, including 159 residential units and 15200 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 98%

according to the monitoring data of E-House Real Estate Research Institute on the national housing inventory in 100 cities, by the end of March 2019, the total inventory of newly-built commercial housing in 100 cities under monitoring was 45.1 million square meters, an increase of 3.0% year-on-year. According to historical data, since September 2018, the inventory of residential buildings in Baicheng has changed from the previous trend of continuous decline and started to enter the upward channel

"it is expected that the inventory in the second quarter will still rise." Yanyuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that in march2019, 51 of the 100 cities monitored had year-on-year inventory growth. Among them, inventories in Huizhou, Fuzhou and Langfang increased rapidly, with year-on-year growth rates of 104%, 82% and 79% respectively, that is, on the basis of different fixtures

by comparing the inventory data of each tier city, it can be seen that the inventory of the third and fourth tier cities is rising more obviously. Since November 2018, inventories in the third and fourth tier cities have shown a continuous positive growth trend month on month and year on year. In particular, the inventory of the third and fourth tier cities has been rising significantly in the past five months. Yanyuejin pointed out that "the third and fourth tier real estate market has stepped into an obvious cooling channel, which has increased the pressure of inventory decontamination."

some cities try to transform and develop

due to the warming of the land market in some cities in the past month, from April to now, nearly 20 ministries and commissions and cities have issued a variety of real estate tightening control policies. Policy adjustments are frequent in cities with significantly rising house prices, and Suzhou and other cities have even issued tightening control policies continuously

among them, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, on the basis of early warning for six cities on April 19, recently gave early warning for four cities, Foshan, Suzhou, Dalian and Nanning, where the price index of new commercial housing and second-hand housing has increased significantly in the past three months

"the Ministry of housing and urban rural development has issued early warning tips for urban price rise for two consecutive times, and the early warning, interview and accountability mechanisms have reappeared." According to Zhang Dawei's analysis, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development once again clearly requires that housing should not be sold. China can create a brand-new biomaterial industry for cities with fluctuations in the real estate market. For local governments that are not conducive to the implementation of the task of "stabilizing the local real estate market", they should be interviewed and held accountable in accordance with relevant procedures and in conjunction with relevant departments. It means that the national real estate regulation will still maintain the previous high-temperature state. "We will continue to maintain the continuity and stability of regulatory policies, strengthen the two-way regulation of supply and demand in the real estate market, improve the housing supply structure, support the rational demand for owner occupied housing, and resolutely curb speculation in real estate."

yangkewei, a researcher of Kerui Research Center, analyzed that the "red may" of the property market had a poor start, and the transaction of the property market was cold during the May Day holiday. On the other hand, as may and June are the key months for real estate enterprises to intensively sprint for half a year's performance, the enthusiasm of enterprises for pushing cases and marketing continues to rise, and the market supply scale is expected to remain at a high level. Judging from the current market situation, the pattern of transaction differentiation in cities will continue for a longer time. The market demand in the first and second tier cities is relatively sufficient, and the trading volume may still remain high; Third and fourth tier cities are hardly optimistic, and the real estate market is still facing some adjustment pressure

it is worth mentioning that the cold winter of the real estate market has a certain impact on the regional economic and social development. In some regions, real estate development has slowed down and the development volume has decreased, resulting in a continuous decline in the total investment in fixed assets. As the real estate industry covers a wide range, the dormancy of the real estate market has slowed down the development of construction, real estate intermediary, decoration, home appliances and other related industries, resulting in a decline in income. In some areas, about half of the real estate agents are closed. Some developers have high inventory and difficulty in collecting payment, resulting in layoffs, and the progress of their shanty town reconstruction projects has also been affected

an industry insider in Langfang pointed out that the development of the local real estate industry has been in a downward trend since 2017. According to the current market situation, the development volume will continue to decline significantly. Dachang County expects that the newly started commercial housing area in 2019 will be about 400000 square meters, which has reached the level of 2009, with a decrease of 78.33% compared with the development peak year, and the industry development trend appears

in the face of the downturn in the real estate market, some regions around Beijing have taken the initiative to seek change, began to seek transformation and development, and cracked the "real estate dependency", such as vigorously developing high-tech industries such as "big intelligence moving to the cloud" (big data, intelligent manufacturing, mobile Internet, Cloud Computing), as well as high-end equipment manufacturing and modern service industries, and actively undertaking Beijing Tianjin industrial transfer according to local characteristics, In 2018, economic growth was still achieved when the real estate market was "cold"